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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Dienhart
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10.02.2009 |
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After a relatively upbeat third quarter, October has started off rocky with stock indices down, and today’s employment release showing greater than expected losses. Housing markets and consumer confidence have had mixed results of late, after several months of hopeful signs of stabilization. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Dienhart
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09.29.2009 |
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A series of conflicting data on housing and consumers has muddied the waters of late, with the Census new home sales release showing an increase for the fifth consecutive month, while the National Association of Realtors’ report on existing home sales showed an incremental decline. In a similar contradiction, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey increased to its highest level so far this year while the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board dropped unexpectedly. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Dienhart
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09.21.2009 |
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Builders are finally seeing some stabilization in sales activity, sparked by higher affordability and the federal government’s homebuyer tax credit. Many are pushing for the tax credit to be extended past the current November deadline, with fewer eligibility requirements on top of it, but Congress has yet to act on the issue. August home sales data to be released at the end of the week will likely reflect an increase in purchase activity as the expiration of the tax credit draws near. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Dienhart
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09.11.2009 |
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While the U.S. economy continues to shed jobs, equity markets have been moving cautiously higher over the past week. The broader S&P 500 index has increased for the past five consecutive sessions although it has yet to breakthrough its October 6, 2008 resistance levels. All three major stock indices were slightly lower through mid-day trading on Friday even though the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index posted a surprising increase for August. The report shows that conditions continue to improve for the U.S. economy although it may still be a long and arduous recovery. Even though job losses have moderated, the U.S. economy continues to shed payrolls while wage growth has been virtually non-existent. The continued rise in unemployment along with weaker income trends means broader economic recovery is still some distance off.
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Economics
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Written by Jonas Adams
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09.08.2009 |
Non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment in August was 5,999,000 jobs lower than in August 2008, a slight increase from last month's year-over-year revised loss of 5,868,000 and over 11 times the number of jobs lost over the twelve month period ending in August 2008. This also represents the heaviest year-over-year percent drop in annualized non-seasonally adjusted employment growth seen since October 1949. Currently, non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment shows a figure of 131,003,000, a loss of 4.38% from August 2008. Based on current trends, we expect year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted employment growth totals to continue to be negative into the fourth quarter of this year.
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Dienhart
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08.27.2009 |
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Equity markets continue to trend higher as the S&P 500 closed trading on Wednesday at 1,028 - the highest it has been since October 6, 2008. Expectations for economic growth in the second half of the year are higher as new trickles of improved economic data become available. Both new and existing home sales posted their fourth consecutive month of gains in July which at least shows that the artificial drawdown in interest rates by Fed purchases of U.S. Treasuries along with the government’s homebuyer tax credit are bringing some consumers off the sidelines. Leading economic indicators also increased for the fourth consecutive month in July, which suggests that conditions should continue to improve in coming months.
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Economics
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Written by Ken Lee
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08.27.2009 |
New home sales as surveyed by the U.S. Census increased for the fourth consecutive month in July which further suggests that conditions in the housing market may finally be stabilizing. Seasonally-adjusted new home sales jumped 9.6% from the previous month to an annual rate of 433,000 units. This followed a 9.1% increase in new home sales just last month in June. New home sales for the previous three months were also revised higher by 34,000 units. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales are still down 13.4% from the 500,000 figure in July 2008 and 44.3% less than the July 2007 figure of 778,000. The annual pace of new home sales is now at their highest levels since September. Lower new home prices along with the expiration of the government's homebuyer tax credit approaching have sparked demand recently.
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