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Defining Demand Market Research Written by Jonathan Smoke    12.14.2007 On Wednesday I highlighted a recent academic paper on estimating the demand for new homes over the longer term. In the paper, the methods used to estimate demand at a national level are well described as are the data sets behind them. Would it strike you as odd that most market researchers don’t follow the same type of method of estimating demand for a specific residential development? Well, they don’t. What may have been done initially as the only practical way of measuring feasibility has turned into a paved cowpath touted by many as the only way to measure demand. But before you decide to build a superhighway down that same path, let me tell you about a better way that does live up to the principles espoused in the Harvard paper. No comments for this item Read more...

Estimating Demand for New Homes Market Research Written by Jonathan Smoke    12.12.2007 The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University recently published a new report, “Projecting the Underlying Demand for New Housing Units: Inferences from the Past, Assumptions about the Future,” that is a must read for any serious housing market researcher. The 48 page report is one of the best studies I have seen that provides solid national estimates of expected future demand for new housing. The report also details the methods and data sources used in such a way that market researchers can understand potential limitations of the data used. No comments for this item Read more...   When Will Your Market Hit Bottom? Economics Written by Jonathan Smoke    12.10.2007 Glenn Roberts, Jr. of Inman News has an excellent current article, “When Will Market Hit Bottom?” in our Real Estate News. The article is the first of a three part series regarding current longer-term forecasts for housing. In this first installment, the author covers sentiments of several well-regarded economists from coast to coast who collectively seem to be oriented towards 2010 being the year when things will start to get better. No comments for this item Read more...   Estimating New Home Supply Market Research Written by Jonathan Smoke    12.07.2007 I’m excited to announce that we have added a major new information enhancement to the Neighborhood Insights application to provide visibility into estimated new home supply. As researchers we have been frustrated by the few and inconsistent methods to measure supply in markets. We also wanted a way to analyze supply down to census tracts or zip codes and by price point. The new enhancement does exactly that. This item includes 1 comment Read more...   New Research Sheds More Light on Subprime’s Impact Mortgage Written by Jonathan Smoke    12.04.2007 The lead article on the front page of yesterday’s Wall Street Journal debunked the misconception that only those with poor or limited credit hold subprime mortgages. Whether people wanted the convenience of avoiding documenting income or made decisions based on aggressive and potentially fraudulent -- or at least unethical -- mortgage brokering, a large number of people who could have had prime mortgages ended up in subprime mortgages during this decade. No comments for this item Read more...   New Homes Sales Slowly Improve Economics Written by Jonathan Smoke    11.30.2007 The Commerce Department reported yesterday that new-home sales rose 1.7% in October over September as the median price of a new home in October was down 13% from the prior year. Imagine that—economics 101 was right. If demand falls, the sure fire way to increase sales or keep them at the same level is to lower prices. Builders have done that significantly in 2007, so despite a dramatic fall in demand caused by a lack of confidence and limited credit, new home sales are slowly pecking away at inventory levels. No comments for this item Read more...   Pondering Housing Futures’ Inflection Points Housing Derivatives Written by Jonathan Smoke    11.28.2007 To our loyal readers, I humbly apologize for not posting any new commentary for a week. First it was turkey, then football, and this week a never-ending litany of depressing but not that informative news. Let me recap the news this week: Prices are down. Sales are down. Inventories are up. Housing malaise and foreclosures may sink the whole US into a recession if exports and investments from Middle Eastern sovereign funds don’t save us. No comments for this item Read more...

More... Reversed New Home Premium Likely Understates Extent of Discounting Thankfully, Permits and Starts Continue to Fall Be Thankful 2007 Is Almost Over Atlanta Existing Home Prices Remain Resilient Fortunes Are Not Made on Shaky Intelligence – Conclusion Fortunes Are Not Made on Shaky Intelligence – Part 2 Fortunes Are Not Made on Shaky Intelligence HousingIntelligence Spotlight: Salt Lake City, UT Updated Reports and Neighborhood Insights Data Now Available Are the Case-Shiller Indices Representative of the Average Market?

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