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Economics
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Written by Bill Russell
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06.19.2008 |
 On Tuesday I showed that, for most of the US, affordability has been stable or improving since 2000 but that some markets have gotten less affordable. Today I want to look at one of the consequences facing those less affordable markets.
As can be seen in the graph below, job growth is closely tied to home affordability. The graph groups the 361 largest markets into 10 groups, from most affordable to least affordable. As you move from the most affordable groups down to the least affordable, job growth declines from around 10% since 2003, to around 2%. Clearly, businesses prefer to locate and expand in areas that have affordable homes. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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06.18.2008 |
.png) The Commerce Department reported May’s permits and starts on Tuesday. Total permits in May declined 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 969,000. Single family permits, which represent the bulk of activity, declined 4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000. Single family starts declined 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 674,000. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Bill Russell
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06.17.2008 |
 Declining home affordability is often cited as a problem in the US. But is it really a problem? To look at this question, I will use the affordability index produced by Moody’s economy.com, which can be thought of roughly as the ratio of median home prices to annual income. The most expensive markets have affordability indices above 300, meaning that median home prices are roughly 3 times income. The least expensive markets have indices less than 100, meaning that home prices are on par with annual incomes. As the affordability index declines (increases), the market becomes more (less) affordable. | | This item includes 1 comment |
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Economics
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Written by Bill Russell
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06.16.2008 |
 There has been constant talk of a looming recession, which always seems to be the case in election years. As of yet, there is little economic data to support that a recession is imminent since the economy is still showing positive growth and unemployment is still historically low.
Analysis often point to housing as one of the big factors weighing down the economy. The construction sector, as defined by the BLS, has shed over 275,000 jobs since its peak in October 2006. In spite of the hit resulting from the housing bust, the economy overall has still created a net of 1,253,000 jobs since the same month, as can be seen in the chart below. | | No comments for this item |
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Market Research
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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06.12.2008 |
 Yesterday was the launch of the Southern Building Show in Atlanta. Since the show’s first full day is today, I couldn’t get a gauge for the show attendance yesterday. The Exhibit Floor wasn’t very crowded for the evening “sneak preview,” and none of the afternoon educational sessions I attended were standing room only.
Show organizers claim they expect 5,000 people to attend. We welcome any of those 5,000 to visit us in Booth 1331, across from the big duck. | | No comments for this item |
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Market Research
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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06.10.2008 |
The Southern Building Show formally opens Wednesday afternoon in Atlanta and runs through Friday.
For those of you in the area, come visit us in booth 1331. We’re across from the AFLAC booth, so I expect we will be quacking up if we don’t get a lot of attention to distract us. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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06.10.2008 |
 There’s been much chatter since the National Association of Realtors released the preliminary April Pending Home Sales Index data on Monday. The overall index for the U.S. rose 6.3 percent to 88.2 from 83.0 in March. It’s the highest index reading since last October, but the April value was 13.1 percent lower than April 2007.
I’ve seen the economists debating whether this is an anomaly caused by seasonal data or if it’s real. I’m in the “real” camp since the April measure roughly correlates to stabilization of listing prices as well as declines in days on market. | | No comments for this item |
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