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Housing Derivatives
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.13.2007 |
 Last week the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced it was extending the length of its housing futures and options from up to 1 year to as long as 60 months beginning September 17.
According to the CME’s announcement, contract months extending out 18 months will be listed on a quarterly cycle of February, May, August and November. Contracts listed 19 to 36 months out will be available on a biannual schedule of May and November contracts. An annual November listing schedule will apply to contracts listed 37 to 60 months out into the future. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.10.2007 |
 Over the last week I have been reviewing declines in home ownership and what that means for new home demand. Yesterday I showed that at a national level, the decline in ownership in 2007 essentially produced net negative demand for new homes.
But when we look at the local level, the picture is more complex as several factors can influence demand for new homes. For example, migration that exceeds census estimates will cause a greater need for new housing. Shifts in demographic patterns from younger to older, less educated to more educated, and lower income to higher income households will lead to more demand for new housing. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.09.2007 |
Yesterday I highlighted the troubling specter of declining ownership rates. When  ownership rates go up, they doubly benefit the market for new homes. When they go down, the opposite is true.
New home demand can be estimated using an assumption that existing households are adequately served by existing housing stock, ceteris paribus. So, ignoring demographic shifts and aging housing stock impacts, we could estimate that the new households requiring new housing would be equivalent to the number of new households who want to or can be owners. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.08.2007 |
 On Monday I reviewed more details on the key change now fundamentally impacting the demand for housing: the reversal of gains in home ownership that occurred from 1995 – 2005.
So what are the implications? Clearly the loss of speculators in the market and the corresponding dumping of investment properties have caused some of the inventory hang-over issue impacting most markets. | | No comments for this item |
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Housing Derivatives
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.07.2007 |
 One of my first posts on Housing Intelligence was about a new daily spot home price index being developed by Radar Logic.
Yesterday Radar Logic announced the formal launch of the daily price indices for 25 markets. The company also announced license agreements with several major investment firms -- Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch -- that plan to begin trading over-the-counter contracts based on the price indices starting in September. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.06.2007 |
 In a post last week, I reported that changes in home ownership had a big impact on new home demand. Why this is of concern is that from a peak in 2004, what started as a slow decline has turned into a rapid descent.
The national homeownership rate is forecasted by Moody’s Economy.com to be down to 68.2% by the end of 2007, a full point off its peak in 2004. We have seen a huge loss in demand as this rate has declined. | | No comments for this item |
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Market Research
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Written by Amy Anderson
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08.03.2007 |
The first section of our monthly Market Dashboard Report is the National Overview. This section shows the trends of major economic indicators. For those of you who have purchased an enhanced subscription to view these reports [link], the following information helps define and explain the significance of the measures included in these reports. | | No comments for this item |
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