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April Existing Home Sales Data Weren’t As Bad As the Headlines Indicate Economics Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.27.2008 The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales for April on Friday, and you would have thought from the reaction that they reported a startling decline. The press is fixated on the totals, which are being influenced by a glut of condos. And remember from last week that even more condos are being permitted and started. NAR reported that total existing-home sales declined 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in April from an upwardly revised rate of 4.94 million in March. Single family existing home sales fell 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.34 million in April from 4.36 million in March. It is possible and highly likely that these numbers will be revised, erasing this slight decline. No comments for this item Read more...

Builders Advised to Get Intelligence from Car Dealers? Market Research Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.22.2008 I had to check the date on a new article in Professional Builder to make sure it wasn’t a late April Fool’s joke. No fooling, though. The article seemed right up my alley by its title: “Keep Your Eye on the Data: Don’t wait for us to tell you when we’ve bottomed out. Watch your local data for signs of the upswing.” No comments for this item Read more...   Atlanta Is Slowly Improving According to Local Experts Economics Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.20.2008 The Greater Atlanta Homebuilding Association held another briefing on the state of the Atlanta Housing Market yesterday. The information conveyed was an update to the briefing they provided to local media in March. The outlook was guardedly optimistic. Steve Palmer, the HBA President and the CFO of Bowen Homes, kicked off the meeting acknowledging that he and fellow builders are not seeing the market on an upswing yet. However, he did report that Bowen’s sales in April were the best performance they have experienced since March of 2007 as a result of a special promotion. No comments for this item Read more...   Permits and Starts Data Promising but Beware of Tempting Headlines Economics Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.16.2008 The Commerce Department reported April permits and starts today. One resulting headline story is one of surprise because total permits were up 4.9% over March’s revised numbers and total starts were up 8.2% over March’s revised numbers. This news could be taken as a positive affirmation of the Wall Street Journal’s report on May 6 that the March starts may have signaled ... No comments for this item Read more...   Pulse of Resale Activity Bodes Well for Atlanta’s Recovery Economics Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.15.2008 I have been touting the great visibility into what’s happening now, which we provide through integration of Altos Research’s real-time market charts into our Housing Intelligence coverage. In preparation for Greater Atlanta Home Building Association’s presentation on the state of the market next week, I decided to leverage the charts to see what’s going on with listings activity in Atlanta. What I found is very informative and bodes well for Atlanta’s recovery. No comments for this item Read more...   Listing Price Trend Is Less Positive for 10-City Composite Housing Derivatives Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.13.2008 Yesterday I spotted some light at the end of the tunnel when I saw that price and absorption trends in the listings of homes for sale where both moving in an upward direction. That was based on a 25-city national composite and powered by our new Home Sales Trends intelligence. One of our astute subscribers quickly pointed out to me that the 10-City Composite, which tracks the S&P Case-Shiller Index traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, wasn’t so encouraging. The chart as of yesterday, courtesy of Altos Research, shows that while the 90-day price trend is slightly upward, the 7-day price trend fell through the 90-day trend in April and hasn’t recovered. No comments for this item Read more...   The “Ask” Side of Home Prices Has Stopped Sliding Economics Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.12.2008 One of the best leading indicators of what home prices will do in actual home closings is what is happening with listings. The view of the “ask” side of home prices (the price at which homes are listed) is showing that the trend is now positive. For proof, look at the 7-day and 90-day price trend in our new Home Sales Trends page, which is powered by Altos Research. As you can see from the captured chart for a national 25-city composite, the 90-day trend bottomed in late March and is slowly trending higher. No comments for this item Read more...

More... New Home Sales Will Rebound Starting in 2009, But Forget Previous Peaks Whither Goes the Housing Market? Available Home Price Indices and Resources Are Flawed S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices May Be More Negative Due to Foreclosures Gaining the Power to Understand New Home Buyers The Power of Understanding New Home Buyers March New Home Sales Worse Than Expected Last Month Was Indeed Too Good to Be True Builders Starting to Recognize Importance of Energy Efficiency Permits and Starts Continue to Fall and Are Close to Prior Downturn Lows

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