|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
01.21.2009 |
 As I flew cross country this morning to attend the International Builder Show, the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo released the January reading of builder sentiment known as the Housing Market Index. It should be no surprise to anyone in this industry that the current index reading hit a new all-time low.
The overall HMI index reading for January was 8, down from 9 in December. Even more telling, the Current component, which measures feelings about current market conditions, registered a 6, down from 8 in December. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Research
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
01.15.2009 |
 I recently read with interest an informative column entitled “This Cycle's Recovery Will Be Distinctive” from Giants magazine by industry luminary John Burns. In the article Burns concluded that the housing recovery will vary geographically. He recommended that to find the markets that will recover first builders “need to put your consumer hat on.”
While I whole-heartedly agree with his analysis, the specific advice about how to understand consumers and determine where they will re-emerge as buyers left me sorely disappointed. | | This item includes 1 comment |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Research
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
01.14.2009 |
 The conditions at the end of 2008 were horrible in most markets in the country. What we’ve seen in the last two years, but especially at the end of last year, was unprecedented as first home prices, then sales and now economic fundamentals deteriorated all over the country. Housing got a one-two punch followed by a credit crisis and broad economic decline.
But it’s not the same scenario in every market. Some markets have only limited and temporary issues while others have systemic longer term problems that may take several years to fully recover. Some markets didn't see declines in 2008. Some markets have local economies that are doing quite well. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
01.06.2009 |
 Today we received the first of several reports to come over the next few months that won’t tell us much of anything of what is going on now with local housing markets. The national statistics are always a bit misleading, but it will be especially true of trying to drive forward while staring at the rear view mirror filled with housing data from 2008.
Today’s national new nugget was the release of the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. While NAR considers the index to be forward looking in that it is a good predictor of what November and December existing home sales will actually be, given the nuances of how 2008 ended and the massive changes in mortgage rates and more federal stimulus on the way, we can't learn much about tomorrow based on what happened last November. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
12.30.2008 |
 Today Standard & Poor’s released the October readings for the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. It was no surprise that they reported “...continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline and 14 now reporting declines in excess of 10% versus October 2007.”
The report focused on the year-over-year declines in each of the twenty markets covered. On the year-over-year basis, Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco were the worst performers, each losing over 30%. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
12.23.2008 |
 We were treated to a holiday special of both new and existing home sales data for November released today. If your fruit cake and eggnog are of similar quality, please check the freshness date so you won’t ruin the rest of the holiday season.
The National Association of Realtors released preliminary existing home sales for November and noted that “[e]xisting-home sales weakened against a backdrop of an eroding economy.” | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
12.16.2008 |
 The Commerce Department released preliminary new residential construction data for November today, and the report set new lows for permits and starts.
Total building permits in November were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000, which was 15.6% below the revised October rate of 730,000 and 48.1% below the revised November 2007 estimate of 1,187,000. This was a new record low. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
|
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10  
|
| Results 35 - 51 of 287 |
Blog 
