Blog

Mortgage Data Now Available in Market Dashboard Reports
Market Research
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
06.05.2008

We have added two new components to our Market Dashboard reports. On the National Overview we now include data on Existing Homes Sales, New Home Sales, Builder Confidence Components and Average Mortgage Amounts.
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Hangin’ in the OC
Market Research
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
05.30.2008
I enjoyed the opportunity to go out west this week and visit with Patrick Duffy of Metro Intelligence and HousingChronicles.com and Southern California developers and builders. I also participated in a one-day builder conference sponsored by Hyphen Solutions and Professional Builder.

My friends from Hyphen invited me to speak about my experience in implementing technology to improve efficiency and effectiveness of home builders. And then they let me partner with Patrick in delivering a state of the market presentation on Orange County, which was the venue for the conference.
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New Data Send Confusing Signals About Market Conditions
Economics
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
05.28.2008
The Commerce Department reported initial new home sales for April on Monday. While the April total was higher than March by 3.3%, the number was actually lower than what economists were expecting since the initial March figure was downwardly revised in this new release.

The new home sales count is collected via a survey method that has a wide standard deviation, so we can’t take much confidence in the metric being slightly up. Indeed, given the standard error reported, it could very well have been down.
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April Existing Home Sales Data Weren’t As Bad As the Headlines Indicate
Economics
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
05.27.2008
The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales for April on Friday, and you would have thought from the reaction that they reported a startling decline. The press is fixated on the totals, which are being influenced by a glut of condos. And remember from last week that even more condos are being permitted and started.

NAR reported that total existing-home sales declined 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in April from an upwardly revised rate of 4.94 million in March. Single family existing home sales fell 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.34 million in April from 4.36 million in March. It is possible and highly likely that these numbers will be revised, erasing this slight decline.
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Builders Advised to Get Intelligence from Car Dealers?
Market Research
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
05.22.2008
I had to check the date on a new article in Professional Builder to make sure it wasn’t a late April Fool’s joke.

No fooling, though. The article seemed right up my alley by its title: “Keep Your Eye on the Data: Don’t wait for us to tell you when we’ve bottomed out. Watch your local data for signs of the upswing.”
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Atlanta Is Slowly Improving According to Local Experts
Economics
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
05.20.2008
The Greater Atlanta Homebuilding Association held another briefing on the state of the Atlanta Housing Market yesterday. The information conveyed was an update to the briefing they provided to local media in March. The outlook was guardedly optimistic.

Steve Palmer, the HBA President and the CFO of Bowen Homes, kicked off the meeting acknowledging that he and fellow builders are not seeing the market on an upswing yet. However, he did report that Bowen’s sales in April were the best performance they have experienced since March of 2007 as a result of a special promotion.
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Permits and Starts Data Promising but Beware of Tempting Headlines
Economics
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
05.16.2008
The Commerce Department reported April permits and starts today. One resulting headline story is one of surprise because total permits were up 4.9% over March’s revised numbers and total starts were up 8.2% over March’s revised numbers.

This news could be taken as a positive affirmation of the Wall Street Journal’s report on May 6 that the March starts may have signaled ...
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