|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
09.13.2007 |
 As we looked at Jacksonville’s inventory overhang yesterday, we developed a very useful measure for identifying which markets are most out of balance.
While balance might seem the best condition to achieve, for investment purposes identifying the extremes--those markets most oversupplied and most undersupplied --should signal where there may be buying opportunities and where there may be the best conditions for price appreciation. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
09.12.2007 |
 Yesterday I covered the topic of new home inventory overhang and specifically looked at Jacksonville, FL. We saw that in looking only at single-family homes, Jacksonville had a clear bubble in permits from 2003 to 2005, but appeared to have pulled back significantly so that much of the inventory presumably would be worked off.
I ended the post saying we would next dig into multifamily permits or what the total permit picture had to say. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
09.11.2007 |
 A clear issue impacting new home sales and new home prices is the amount of new home inventories that resulted from frenzied permits and starts at the peak. The cure for such an overhang comes from time, a reduction in new permits and starts, and eventually an increase in sales.
An increase in sales pace doesn’t look likely in the foreseeable future as the pace of new home sales is also impacted by the pace of existing home sales and the amount of inventory available in existing homes. Because of investor sales and foreclosures, existing home inventories will not decline for some time. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Mortgage
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
09.07.2007 |
What are the three most important words in real estate? Location, location, location. I try regularly to illustrate the economics behind that bit of wisdom that was passed on to me early in my career.
That’s why I was surprised to see a post from Maya Roney at Business Week on the Hot Property blog entitled “Real Estate Is Not All Local.” Roney’s thesis appears to be that the mortgage problems are national so the impact to home sales is in part national. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
09.05.2007 |
 If you read my posts, it won’t take you long to recognize the theme that location-specific conditions influence much of what matters in housing performance. But even if you understand the importance of location, you are often faced with the problem of finding reliable housing intelligence on a truly local basis.
As market researchers focused on housing, we struggled for years to find reliable information that could reveal neighborhood-level insights like price trends, builder activity, new home price premiums, and who’s buying. Once we found a way to do this, we’ve been working on a way to provide such insights to others. | | This item includes 1 comment |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
09.04.2007 |
In response to Friday’s post on the forecast for possible home price declines, a HousingIntelligence community member asked us to reveal more information about the forecast for New Jersey.
As it turns out, looking at markets in New Jersey perfectly illustrates the theme that prices are really determined in local markets, where the impact of demand and supply really happens. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Economics
|
|
Written by Jonathan Smoke
|
|
08.31.2007 |
A front-page article in today’s Wall Street Journal reported findings by the Mortgage Bankers Association. It said that mortgages on properties not occupied by an owner -- such as investment homes -- account for between 21% and 32% of defaults on prime-quality loans in several states where speculation during the boom was the most active.
This makes sense. Despite credit quality, if investors put little money down and now because of static or falling prices have limited or negative equity, the easiest thing for them to do is to walk away. Investment activity did not happen equally in every market. In fact, only a few markets enjoyed the benefit of the investment ride up. | | No comments for this item |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
|
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10  
|
| Results 137 - 153 of 216 |
Blog 
