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Market Research
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Written by Amy Anderson
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08.03.2007 |

The first section of our monthly Market Dashboard Report is the National Overview. This section shows the trends of major economic indicators. For those of you who have purchased an enhanced subscription to view these reports [link], the following information helps define and explain the significance of the measures included in these reports. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.02.2007 |
Thanks to some commentary from a few public builder insiders and yesterday’s explanation from Gary Saykaly, I now have a better understanding of what the various forms of off-balance sheet investing may mean to public builders in a time of declining prices.
As I mentioned yesterday, these vehicles should be even more popular for builders of all types in this sort of market as they generally share risk and potential return among parties. That said, I have learned that these off-balance sheet vehicles would make it far more difficult to analyze the value of public builders as there are implications that could be hidden from traditional balance sheet analysis. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.01.2007 |

On a day when the stock market loses its mind and responds to scurrilous rumors in housing more than facts, I thought it would be good to quiet my keyboard and invite a guest to give us some color on a topic that was raised by one of our HousingIntelligence users.
Yesterday we received the following question/suggestion to research: | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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07.31.2007 |

Demand for new homes is primarily driven by the formation of new households. Quite simply, assuming no changes in demographics or existing housing stock, a new home start is required to provide housing for each new household in an area that can’t be serviced by existing housing or rental housing. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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07.30.2007 |
In last week’s earnings calls by several public builders, cancellations were a definite theme, but like average prices discussed in Friday’s post, cancellation rates and trends experienced by the builders varied.
D.R. Horton reported cancellation rates in April – June as “some of the highest ever” averaging 38% for the quarter. In the Q&A dialogue, the company revealed they felt that cancellation rates were being driven by consumer credit issues. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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07.27.2007 |
When people want to hear negative news, the media is often more than willing to comply. And regarding the housing downturn, now being called a “housing meltdown” in some circles, the public builders have given the media plenty of ammunition this week to fill their headline-grabbing articles.
Six of the nation’s 20th largest builders reported quarterly earnings over the last three days. The common themes well covered by news reports have been: challenging environment for sales, significant price competition, inventory pressures, margin erosion, and weak demand. And these themes all contributed to significant impairments that the builders took turning weak profits into headline-grabbing losses. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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07.26.2007 |
The news this week continues to be negative. Against a back drop of existing home sales and new home sales being down in June, the public builders’ quarterly earnings reports are painting an equally bleak picture that housing is getting worse. And the jitters over housing and the credit environment fueled a wide-spread sell off on the stock market, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling over 400 points during the day today to end down 284 points.
While the news is negative, the reports I am hearing and reading in the media are building on people’s fear that it will get much worse before it gets better. | | No comments for this item |
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