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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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12.28.2007 |
 Yesterday I wrote about the ridiculous position that home prices must decline until homes become affordable -- as if a home’s value is solely determined by what a median household can afford to pay for shelter.
Is the price of gasoline governed by the same rule? Can you come up with anything that’s price is governed by what a median household can afford to pay for it? Maybe french fries in aggregate, but even fries cost a tad bit more at a ball park than at your local McDonald’s. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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12.27.2007 |
 Our loyal readers have noticed that my volume of posts has dropped dramatically this month. A few have been egging me on to write more, but I don’t enjoy writing for the sake of filling space—I want my posts to inform and entertain, and to do that I need something interesting to happen, or I need something new to inspire me.
Normally it doesn’t take much to inspire me. But given a rush of year-end projects combined with the usual holiday craziness, the same-old, same-old on housing has not been inspirational. Do you really need more talk of price declines, inventory increases, sales declines, and housing-induced recession? | | No comments for this item |
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Market Research
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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12.19.2007 |
 In my last post I described the distinction between estimated demand and demonstrated demand and how strictly looking at demonstrated demand can lead researchers and planners to miss clear opportunities in a market.
There’s nothing quite like a real example to show the difference. So I am sharing with you some research we recently completed in a submarket of Atlanta. | | No comments for this item |
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Market Research
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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12.14.2007 |
On Wednesday I highlighted a recent academic paper on estimating the demand for new homes over the longer term. In the paper, the methods used to estimate demand at a national level are well described as are the data sets behind them.
Would it strike you as odd that most market researchers don’t follow the same type of method of estimating demand for a specific residential development? Well, they don’t. What may have been done initially as the only practical way of measuring feasibility has turned into a paved cowpath touted by many as the only way to measure demand. But before you decide to build a superhighway down that same path, let me tell you about a better way that does live up to the principles espoused in the Harvard paper. | | No comments for this item |
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Market Research
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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12.12.2007 |
 The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University recently published a new report, “Projecting the Underlying Demand for New Housing Units: Inferences from the Past, Assumptions about the Future,” that is a must read for any serious housing market researcher.
The 48 page report is one of the best studies I have seen that provides solid national estimates of expected future demand for new housing. The report also details the methods and data sources used in such a way that market researchers can understand potential limitations of the data used. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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12.10.2007 |
 Glenn Roberts, Jr. of Inman News has an excellent current article, “When Will Market Hit Bottom?” in our Real Estate News. The article is the first of a three part series regarding current longer-term forecasts for housing.
In this first installment, the author covers sentiments of several well-regarded economists from coast to coast who collectively seem to be oriented towards 2010 being the year when things will start to get better. | | No comments for this item |
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Market Research
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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12.07.2007 |
 I’m excited to announce that we have added a major new information enhancement to the Neighborhood Insights application to provide visibility into estimated new home supply.
As researchers we have been frustrated by the few and inconsistent methods to measure supply in markets. We also wanted a way to analyze supply down to census tracts or zip codes and by price point. The new enhancement does exactly that. | | This item includes 1 comment |
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