Blog

Last Month Was Indeed Too Good to Be True
Economics
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.22.2008
Last month Wall Street was encouraged by a surprise increase in February’s existing home sales. I reported that the signal, though positive, was weak. Based on today’s release of March existing home sales by the National Association of Realtors, that signal indeed seems to be a bit of a fluke.

According to NAR, existing home sales declined 2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million units in March from 5.03 million in February.
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Builders Starting to Recognize Importance of Energy Efficiency
Market Research
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.18.2008
Patrick Duffy’s HousingChronicles blog featured a post yesterday about Beazer Homes and their new branded green building program.

As I wrote last week, energy efficiency is a hot topic for consumers based on the data from the 2007-2008 NAHB Consumer Preference Study.

One question in the survey puts an exclamation point on why builders need to be focusing on such programs and making all new homes as energy efficient as possible.
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Permits and Starts Continue to Fall and Are Close to Prior Downturn Lows
Economics
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.16.2008
The Commerce Department reported March permits and starts today. The story is essentially the same as in March when February permits and starts were reported.

Total permits were down 5.8% over February’s upwardly revised numbers.  Total starts were down 5.7%. Of more significance in most areas are the single unit numbers. Seasonally adjusted single unit permits were down 6.2%. Seasonally adjusted single unit starts were down 6.7%.
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Home Buyer Tradeoffs
Market Research
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.11.2008
As I mentioned in the first article on home buyer preferences, home buyers are realistic and practical in their preferences. Nothing reveals that better than a question regarding what they would be willing to accept for a less expensive home.

Across all respondents, the number one choice is to opt for unfinished spaces in the home. Another significant finding is that consumers are not willing to accept inferior quality, defined as less expensive materials, to make a home more affordable.
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Are Home Buyers Turning Green or Getting Energy Smart?
Market Research
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.10.2008
Yesterday I began a series of posts on our analysis of the NAHB 2007-2008 Consumer Preference Study. We did find that energy efficiency and better insulation were top influencers right behind living space. However, the survey data on energy and environmental issues reflect more of a practical awareness of the importance of conserving energy rather than an all out shift towards being Green at the expense of other desires and priorities.
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Understanding Home Buyer Preferences
Market Research
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.09.2008
Our clients and partners know that one of our core strengths is the focus we put on understanding the new home buyer. Our research into housing demand and consumer groups encompasses years of direct experience and market research with a focus on new home shoppers, buyers and owners. In addition, through our partner company Rating Insights, we conduct our own formal surveys of home shopper and buyer preferences.

Therefore, when the National Association of Home Builders began soliciting sponsors for its 2007-2008 Consumer Preferences Survey, I was quick to sign up. As a sponsor of the study, my company BlueSmoke received permission from the NAHB to leverage the data with our own consumer research to produce insights into preferences by consumer group.
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Are You Interested in Creating Better Housing Intelligence Together?
Market Research
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.08.2008
Housing is an industry plagued with an inability to share a common view of some very important concepts. If we can’t even agree on the facts, how could our leaders possibly debate strategies and policies?

Furthermore, if you are an analyst like me you must also be antagonized by the fact that some of the most basic data we need to produce the best analysis for our stakeholders is limited, lacking or held for a king’s ransom by property data barons who do not understand the disservice they provide to this industry, country and the world economy.
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