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Mortgage
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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09.08.2008 |
 While debates rage on when we will find the bottom in home prices declines, intelligent buyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines should be paying attention to mortgage rates as well. Beyond credit quality and the type and length of loans, two factors influence how consumers buy a home—the price of that home and the interest rate of the mortgage.
The price of the home and the interest rate of the mortgage each have a significant impact on the monthly payment, so assuming would-be buyers are trying to time the bottom on when to purchase a home, ignoring what is happening to interest rates and where they are likely headed could lead to regrets. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Christina Weitzman
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09.03.2008 |
 An article from the Chicago Tribute that I read in our Housing Economics news section grabbed my attention with the title, The case for—and against—Case-Shiller index. It seems that we’re not the only ones who think the Case-Shiller index has limitations in aptly assessing the housing market.
“The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes are based on value comparisons over time for the same house. That is, a sale is included if it can be compared to a prior transaction. That way, there is no need to try to control for changes in a home's characteristics, such as a new kitchen or a room addition. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.29.2008 |
August is almost over, and I for one am very excited about the days and weeks ahead. The first part of this year was dreadful for anyone working in this industry. Some say the builders, developers and bankers have had the worst of this down market, but the reality is that the suppliers to housing have suffered as much or more.
I am hopeful because I see light at the end of the tunnel. For months now the key metrics on a national level have not gotten worse. Most recently home price and home sales have shown signs of minor improvement. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.26.2008 |
 Preliminary data on July new home sales were released by the Commerce Department yesterday. The stats were a bit more positive than last month, but looking at the statistical significance of these survey based metrics, it’s essentially the same story—new home sales are treading water.
In July, sales of new single family homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000, which is 2.4% above the revised June rate of 503,000 but 35.3% below the July 2007 rate of 796,000. The 2.4% increase is not statistically significant. That means sales could have been up or down—it’s too close to call. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.26.2008 |
 The June Case-Shiller reading of existing home prices was released by Standard & Poor’s today. The year-over-year readings are still very negative with the National, 10-City and 20-City composites recording year-over-year quarterly declines of 15.4%, 17% and 15.9% respectively. But the June data showed signs of moderation in the rate of decline.
And if you dig into them, there’s even more reason to see light at the end of the tunnel. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.25.2008 |
The National Association of Realtors reported preliminary July sales today. Almost reversing the 3.4% decline in June, existing home sales increased 3.1% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5 million in July.
What is the national media focusing on? Intentionally misleading readings of inventory levels. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.19.2008 |
 The Commerce Department released the initial readings on new home construction in July today. The numbers reflect depressed demand and controlled production that will continue to enable slow progress against inventories and an eventual stable recovery.
Total permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 937,000 units, which was 17.7 % below the revised June rate of 1,138,000 and 32.4 % below the revised July 2007 estimate of 1,386,000. Both readings are statistically significant that total permits declined in July. | | No comments for this item |
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