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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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09.29.2008 |
 No matter what your political persuasion or philosophy regarding the appropriateness of the “Bail Out Bill,” it appears that those in power are convinced we are in dire straits and hence we deserve an “Emergency Economic Stabilization Act,” or so the legislation is formally titled.
I read through the bill that was finalized yesterday that was debated and voted down in the House today. The down vote was a bit surprising considering how much of a compromise plan it was supposed to be. At my writing of this, the House Democratic leadership is planning a second vote while they try to strong-arm both Democrats and Republicans who voted against it. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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09.25.2008 |
 In a continuation of the piece I wrote yesterday about the latest government stats on new home sales and inventory levels, I thought it would be worthwhile to drill into the inventory numbers.
A house is considered for sale when a permit has been issued and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted. In other words, the Commerce Department numbers on “new homes for sale” reveal the amount of speculative building. Granted, a portion of these aren’t necessarily speculative—some had contracts but were cancelled, some are for models and some are a result of needing to start a new phase or community before sales can begin. Therefore, it is very relevant for us to look at the composition of these inventory units. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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09.25.2008 |
 The Commerce Department reported the preliminary August new home sales statistics today. Sales of new homes in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 460,000 units, which is 11.5% below the revised July rate of 520,000 and is 34.5% below the August 2007 rate of 702,000. The monthly reported change is not statistically significant but the year-over-year decline is.
Because of the decline in the seasonally adjusted pace of new home sales, the seasonally adjusted measure of supply increased to 10.9 months from 10.3 months in July. That number is not statistically significant given the wide margin of error in the survey sampling method employed by the Commerce Department. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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09.24.2008 |
 The National Association of Realtors reported the preliminary readings on August existing home sales today. According to NAR, existing home sales were down in August following a healthy gain in July as tight mortgage credit curtailed activity.
Total existing home sales declined 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million units in August from an upwardly revised pace of 5.02 million in July. The majority of the decline was in condo sales as condos declined 8.2%, while sales of single family homes declined only 1.4%. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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09.18.2008 |
 Yesterday the Commerce Department released August permits and starts data. It should not be a surprise to anyone related to the industry that permits and starts were both down at historically low levels.
Total building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 854,000 units, which was 8.9% below the July rate of 937,000 and was 36.4% below the August 2007 rate of 1,343,000. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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09.17.2008 |
 The financial market woes of the last few days has caused me to pause and seek out lots of opinions and information. As my colleague Bill Russell likes to remind me, the best forecast is an average of several. So what happens next should be found in the opinions of the mainstream, the optimistic and the pessimistic.
We are clearly in a period of rapid change and unrest. People are afraid of what may come next, and that fear can be whipped up to support changes that can hurt rather than help over the long term. As a seeker of intelligence, my greatest fear is that false or bad information can lead people to believe the wrong thing about the world around them and thus even dismiss their own observations to the contrary. So I am seeking some historical truth. | | This item includes 1 comment |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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09.11.2008 |
 Yesterday I had the privilege of attending the S&P – CME Group Housing Forum in New York. The event was open to the financial and housing community and it drew a crowd of over 400 to listen to some of the brightest economic and financial minds focused on housing and housing derivatives.
There were four main sessions at the forum, which provided insights and ideas that could fill this blog for the next month. Today I’m going to focus on the key ideas I took away from the first session, which featured four top economists with very informed views of housing. | | No comments for this item |
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