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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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07.06.2007 |
 Picking up from yesterday, I wanted to look at another favorite site for looking at listing data. While still acknowledging that listings are only a proxy for inventory, since they are the best we can easily analyze, we assume that directional trends should be reflective of vacant inventory as well as total listings.
Looking at the Boomerang Hardtack application from OSG, we see what appears to be a peak of total single family listings having been reached in late June. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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07.05.2007 |
The National Association of Realtors reported on Tuesday that its index of pending home sales fell 3.5% in May. ZipRealty released June listing data on 18 covered markets in the Wall Street Journal today. In those covered markets, total listings were up an average of 5% over listings at the end of May. Only one covered market, Tampa, had a decline in listings. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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07.03.2007 |
 At the June Bank of America 2007 Homebuilders Conference, the public builders presented their views of the current market situation and were subjected to many insightful questions by the conference participants.
You can read transcripts of the presentations in our Builder News section. A lot of time was spent discussing pricing and incentives. A very revealing picture was painted by Don Tomnitz, President and CEO of D.R. Horton, Inc. in the transcript from his company’s presentation. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Bill Russell
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07.02.2007 |
 Previously, I looked for variables that explain home appreciation. Today I want to put forth one factor that I am certain cannot explain it: construction costs. There are some interesting papers on this topic (one of the best can be found on the National Bureau of Economic Research website), but I think I can prove my case pretty simply.
I began with a good home price index produced by the OFHEO. Although there is no official home construction price index, the BLS provides price index data on most of the components necessary to build one. Using this BLS data, I built a construction cost index, containing the price of lumber, concrete, copper, gypsum, and roofing materials. I also included an average wage rate from the Social Security Administration. The results can be seen below. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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06.29.2007 |
 Yesterday I wrote about our analysis of the boom and downturn, and one of the most interesting findings from looking at the forecast for new homes was that for the larger markets that experienced the boom and now the bust, the levels of new home sales they will return to in late 2008 and beyond are not at the peak levels we’ve seen in recent years. | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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06.28.2007 |
 The news on home sales and home prices this week clearly has not been good. But, tired of hearing the same old reports about May vs. April or last month this year vs. the same month last year, we decided to try some different takes on the market to help discern where the bottom may be and just how widespread this downturn is.
From specific project research we had recently conducted for clients and from looking at our recent forecast report... | | No comments for this item |
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Economics
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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06.26.2007 |
 Yesterday the National Association of Realtor’s reported that existing home sales declined in May to a four-year low. With a corresponding slight increase in inventory, the month’s supply of homes rose to a 15 year high at 8.9 months.
Today, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales also declined 1.6% in May to an annual rate of 915,000. They also revised down their April figure. Instead of the previously reported increase in sales of 16%, they now stand at an increase of 13% in April, so this revision lessened the May decline figure. | | No comments for this item |
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