| Builder Show 2008—Day One Observations |
| Written by Jonathan Smoke | |
| 02.14.2008 | |
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Discuss this article on the forums. (0 posts) Yesterday the official 2008 International Builder Show kicked off in Orlando. The traffic congestion and massive show layout across the Orlando Convention Center didn’t look all that different from years past. Rumor has it that the show will likely have as much as a 20% decline in attendance, but there were still lines, reflecting that builders and suppliers are not giving up on 2008.  The least optimistic session of the day was delivered by three dismal scientists: David Seiders of NAHB, David Berson of the PMI Group, and Frank Nothaft of Freddie Mac. As expected, Seiders had the most optimistic forecast—for new home sales to begin to pick back up towards the end of 2008. The other two looked more towards the end of 2008 or into 2009 before sales pick back up.Frank Nothaft pointed to a 50% chance of recession and deteriorating credit conditions making it less likely that things will get better before 2009, but he did note that now is a great time to buy a home if you are a qualified prime borrower seeking a full documented loan. David Berson focused more on housing prices and discussed that indeed he expects prices to fall nationally through 2008 and into 2009, but various cities will see improvement before the national averages improve. All of the economists expect home sales to stabilize, i.e., not get worse, in 2008. You can download all three presentations from the NAHB’s web site. Anecdotally in the crowds, I heard more than one builder remark about good traffic and sales so far this year, so if that continues and is happening in many markets, the pace of sales could improve and reduce inventories at a faster clip than the economists are expecting. Otherwise, we’re in for a slow 2008 but hopefully not as negative as 2007. The most interesting session today was a late afternoon presentation and panel discussion called “Meet the Press.” It was painfully clear that builders do not think the national media or local media are covering housing appropriately. The biggest complaint from the crowd was continual regurgitation of national statistics that don’t really indicate how things are locally. 
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