Economics

Permits and Starts for November at Historic Lows
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
12.16.2008
The Commerce Department released preliminary new residential construction data for November today, and the report set new lows for permits and starts.

Total building permits in November were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000, which was 15.6% below the revised October rate of 730,000 and 48.1% below the revised November 2007 estimate of 1,187,000. This was a new record low.
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Builder Sentiment Remains Depressed As Future Outlook Dims
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
12.15.2008
The National Association of Home Builders released the December NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report today. The new report revealed that last month’s record low reading of 9 for the overall index remained pat while two out of three underlying component actually declined further.

Sentiment about the present conditions and outlook for the next six months both declined while the traffic reading remained at its all-time low of 7. That means every reading of builder sentiment is at a record low. The survey based data dates back to January 1985 as the chart below illustrates.
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October Pending Home Sales Decline Less Than Expected
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
12.09.2008
The National Association of Realtors reported the preliminary readings on October pending home sales today. Since the economic meltdown seemed to reach an apex in October, I was expecting a significant decline as the series had been displaying a positive trend this summer until September.

The preliminary October number for the U.S. was down 0.7% to 88.9 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.5 in September. The year-over-year decline was only 1%.
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In Defense of Housing: There’s No Investment Like Home
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
12.03.2008

As we continue to live through the worst recorded decline in home prices, it has become popular sport to deride housing or investing in residential real estate as an outdated and misinformed investment concept that will decline in interest if it hasn’t already.

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal included an in-depth feature article entitled “The Future for Home Prices.” The mocking subtitle gave away the subtext of the financial intellectual elite viewpoint: “Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. It may be wishful thinking.”
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Be Thankful 2008 Is Almost Over
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
11.26.2008
The Commerce Department reported preliminary new home sales for October today. Sales of new single family homes were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 units in October 2008, which was 5.3% below the revised lower rate of 457,000 units in September.

As the data is collected by survey sampling, the decline was substantially within the margin of error, so it’s not statistically significant. That simply means we really don’t know if it was lower, higher or more or less the same. So don’t get hung up on quoting the decline percentage.
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