Economics

Builder Sentiment Slightly Improves
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
08.18.2008
The National Association of Home Builders released the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for August today, and the new figures reflected some improvement, albeit relatively minor.

The overall confidence measure remained at 16, a record low over its 23 year history, but two of its three components showed increases over their July readings.

August posted a one-point rise in the index gauging current sales conditions while the index that tracks sales expectations increased two points. The third and final component of the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged.
No comments for this item
Read more...
 

The Price of Oil and Home Sales Are Not Directly Related
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
08.13.2008

Twice in the past week I have been questioned by clients about the price of oil’s impact on housing and the current housing downturn. It’s easy to see why. Until its recent retreat, the price of crude oil had more than doubled in the last year. Since new construction, home prices and home sales have tanked in the last year, the conclusion is that the price of oil is part of the problem.

And worse, when I pressed one client’s source of concern I learned of a local housing market expert who recently told a group of builders and developers that the price of oil had to retreat to less than $100 per barrel for things to get better.
No comments for this item
Read more...
 

Positive Pending Home Sales Report Missing from Headlines
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
08.08.2008
I had a busy day yesterday so I didn’t have a chance to see the pending home sales report from the National Association of Realtors when it was released. The Wall Street Journal had the following on the front page of yesterday’s paper: “Headline: Pending Home Sales Seen Lower in June. The National Association of Realtors is expected to say that pending home sales fell in June but less steeply than in May.”

As it turned out, the report was a positive surprise. I thought positive surprises were supposed to merit thoughtful news coverage.
No comments for this item
Read more...
 

Florida Dominates Worst Markets for Housing Prospects
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
08.05.2008
Yesterday, we revealed the updated top 20 markets for the best housing prospects. Today I’m covering the bottom 20—or the markets with the worst prospects. Texas isn’t represented on this list; instead, it’s Flo-rida. Shawty got low, low, low, low…

Remember, our index calculations are meant to give a picture of what we expect markets to be like in 3-5 years. While the market equilibrium is current, the other variables are based on the most recent forecasts out for five years. The indices are relative so they score the markets against one another.
No comments for this item
Read more...
 

The Prospects Are Bright Deep in the Heart of Texas
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
08.04.2008
We’ve updated our Prospects Index calculations based on the latest historical data and forecasts for key housing metrics, including market equilibrium, economic outlook, home price risk, and long-term home price appreciation. As to the best markets for future prospects, I wouldn’t bet against Texas.

Before we get into the list, it’s important to note our emphasis on prospects. Our index calculations are meant to give a picture of what we expect these markets to be like in 3-5 years. While the market equilibrium is current, the other variables are based on the most recent forecasts out for five years. The indices are relative so they score the markets against one another.
No comments for this item
Read more...
 
More...
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Results 151 - 180 of 283