Economics

March New Home Sales Worse Than Expected
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.24.2008
While economists were expecting a 2% decline, the Commerce Department released the preliminary new home sales for March today and instead we found an 8.5% decline over February. This was also significantly worse than the decline in existing home sales reported earlier in the week.

While this level and pace of sales is at 17-year lows, we still haven’t reached the lows of the last housing recession in 1991. But on the other hand, the months’ supply of new homes has shot up to 11 months, which is worse than the ’91 recession and is darn close to the highs of the ’80-’81 recession.
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Last Month Was Indeed Too Good to Be True
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.22.2008
Last month Wall Street was encouraged by a surprise increase in February’s existing home sales. I reported that the signal, though positive, was weak. Based on today’s release of March existing home sales by the National Association of Realtors, that signal indeed seems to be a bit of a fluke.

According to NAR, existing home sales declined 2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million units in March from 5.03 million in February.
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Permits and Starts Continue to Fall and Are Close to Prior Downturn Lows
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.16.2008
The Commerce Department reported March permits and starts today. The story is essentially the same as in March when February permits and starts were reported.

Total permits were down 5.8% over February’s upwardly revised numbers.  Total starts were down 5.7%. Of more significance in most areas are the single unit numbers. Seasonally adjusted single unit permits were down 6.2%. Seasonally adjusted single unit starts were down 6.7%.
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The Pulse of Listings Shows Prices Continuing to Decline
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.03.2008

Altos Research released their first quarter National Real Estate report today. I consider their analysis to be one of the best leading indicators of what to expect in new contracts and closings over the next 60+ days.

The news doesn’t look good on the home price front, as prices continue to fall while listings are increasing. The one bright spot in the data is that days on market are declining.
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Best and Worst Places for Housing Prospects
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
04.02.2008
We’ve updated our Prospects Index calculations based on the latest historical data and forecasts for key housing metrics, including market equilibrium, economic outlook, home price risk, and long-term home price appreciation. So it’s time to feature our new best and worst places for housing prospects.

Before we get into the list, it’s important to note our emphasis on prospects. Our index calculations are meant to give a picture of what we expect these markets to be like in 3-5 years. While the market equilibrium is current, the other variables are based on the most recent forecasts out for five years.
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