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Are Listings Peaking?
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
07.06.2007
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Picking up from yesterday, I wanted to look at another favorite site for looking at listing data. While still acknowledging that listings are only a proxy for inventory, since they are the best we can easily analyze, we assume that directional trends should be reflective of vacant inventory as well as total listings.

Looking at the Boomerang Hardtack application from OSG, we see what appears to be a peak of total single family listings having been reached in late June.

The Boomerang Hardtack application is based on listings data pulled from Realtor.com and other listings sites throughout the country. The numbers reported are not seasonally adjusted, so this run up here reflects the real rise in inventory that has occurred as sales pace dropped, but it also reflects the seasonal pattern in listings which rise every spring and begin to taper off in the summer as we get closer to the new school year start.

Looking through the various regions, this peak and subtle decline seems to be occurring in most regions. Some are simply flat, but the drop was even more significant in the Pacific.

Click on graph for larger view

Of course this could just be a blip, but as the seasonal impacts begin to decrease listings, we may see this truly as the peak, and if the market improves as expected in 2008, this may be a peak not reached again for a while. While sales may not improve significantly in coming months, total listings including vacant inventory should decline, albeit gradually.
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