| Atlanta Is Slowly Improving According to Local Experts |
| Written by Jonathan Smoke | |
| 05.20.2008 | |
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Discuss this article on the forums. (0 posts) The Greater Atlanta Homebuilding Association held another briefing on the state of the Atlanta Housing Market yesterday. The information conveyed was an update to the briefing they provided to local media in March. The outlook was guardedly optimistic. Steve Palmer, the HBA President and the CFO of Bowen Homes, kicked off the meeting acknowledging that he and fellow builders are not seeing the market on an upswing yet. However, he did report that Bowen’s sales i  n April were the best performance they have experienced since March of 2007 as a result of a special promotion.Dr. Roger Tutterow, an economist from Mercer University, provided addition insight and analysis into the first quarter Atlanta Consumer Confidence data, which he surveys and produces for the HBA. According to Tutterow, gasoline prices are having a disproportionate impact on consumer sentiment. In other words, for Atlanta and presumably the nation, the dark moods being reported in confidence survey numbers are conveying a grimmer reality than really exists. So please tell your neighbors and prospective home buyers to cheer up. Dr. Tutterow also pointed out that Atlanta’s consumer confidence was 5 points higher than the nation’s, which is a spread that the market consistently saw in the 1990s while Atlanta was booming relative to the nation. The reverse occurred in late 2001 through 2002 as Atlanta suffered economically relative to the nation. One more insight from the Atlanta Consumer Confidence data was also encouraging. Dr. Tutterow pointed out that consumers were far more positive regarding now being a good time to buy a home compared to the overall opinion of general buying conditions for other big ticket items. That tells me that consumers are starting to understand that conditions are very favorable to buying. Perhaps that’s why we are seeing tangible evidence from our Altos Research charts that listing prices continue to climb while absorptions and market activity are slowly improving. The latest read on Atlanta listing price trends is in the chart below. Finally, Dr. Tutterow pointed out that the volume of mortgages resetting will be starting to diminish over the rest of the year. Therefore, if the economy doesn’t go into a recession, foreclosures should stabilize or at least not get worse. Eugene James from MetroStudy reviewed starts, closings, and months’ supply for Atlanta overall and for north and south Atlanta separately. He reported that closings have been surpassing or equal to starts for the last 6 quarters. Anecdotally, James said that builders are reporting that traffic is up. At the same time, the volume of homes under construction is at historic lows. James noted that in the metro area south of I-20, “I have never seen the number of houses under construction this low.”
So, while no major improvements were reported, the trends are still moving in the right direction. If sales activity picks up even slightly over the rest of the year, Atlanta should be well on its way out of its housing downturn. 
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