| Employment Data Release |
| Written by Jonas Adams | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09.08.2009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment in August was 5,999,000 jobs lower than in August 2008, a slight increase from last month's year-over-year revised loss of 5,868,000 and over 11 times the number of jobs lost over the twelve month period ending in August 2008. This also represents the heaviest year-over-year percent drop in annualized non-seasonally adjusted employment growth seen since October 1949. Currently, non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment shows a figure of 131,003,000, a loss of 4.38% from August 2008. Based on current trends, we expect year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted employment growth totals to continue to be negative into the fourth quarter of this year. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
The current non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment figure of 131,003,000 is on par with the level seen in at the end of 2003. All of the job gains seen over the last six years have been wiped out. According to seasonally adjusted data published today,the economy lost 216,000 jobs in August, a significant improvement from the losses seen during every other month this year, which averaged 516,000 for the first seven months of 2009. On average in 2008, there was contraction of 260,000 jobs per month, in the last quarter this figure accelerated to 550,000 per month. In the first quarter of 2009, the economy lost on average 690,000 jobs per month, falling to 430,000 jobs lost on average per month in the second quarter. Based on the current trend, the amount of jobs lost in the third quarter is expected to fall below the level seen during the first half of the year, but remain in very negative territory. The nation's official unemployment rate increased slightly August, hitting a new 26-year high, increasing to 9.7% - figure which equals approximately 16 million unemployed people. In terms of annual comparison, the unemployment rate is up 360 basis points from the rate of 6.1% seen in August 2008, and is over double the rate seen two years ago in August.
We expect the national unemployment rate to continue to increase in the coming months, as economic conditions are not expected to improve. Currently, the unemployment rate is well above the ten-year average of 5.3%. The current level of the unemployment rate is the highest it has been since June 1983. While the nation's unemployment rate is psychologically important and can influence such factors as Consumer Confidence, it is a lagging indicator of broader economic performance. For more information, click here. |
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