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| Florida Dominates Worst Markets for Housing Prospects |
| Written by Jonathan Smoke | |
| 08.05.2008 | |
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Discuss this article on the forums. (0 posts) Yesterday, we revealed the updated top 20 markets for the best housing prospects. Today I’m covering the bottom 20—or the markets with the worst prospects. Texas isn’t represented on this list; instead, it’s Flo-rida. Shawty got low, low, low, low… Remember, our index calculations are meant to give a picture of what we expect markets to be like in 3-5 years. While the market equilibrium is current, the other variables are based on the most recent forecasts out for five years. The indices are relative so they score the markets against one another. Using the 363 largest markets in the country (all 363 metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the Census and the White House/Office of Management and Budget), the worst markets for housing are large coastal markets and markets with major current economic issues: 1. Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME 2. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 3. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 4. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 5. Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 6. Gainesville, FL 7. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 8. Rockford, IL 9. Palm Coast, FL 10. Barnstable Town, MA 11. Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 12. Honolulu, HI 13. Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 14. Dover, DE 15. Jacksonville, FL 16. Champaign-Urbana, IL 17. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 18. Atlantic City, NJ 19. Naples-Marco Island, FL 20. Ocean City, NJ Comparing the updated list to the list we published in April, five markets improved to be off the current bottom list: Salinas, CA; Kankakee-Bradley, IL; Vallejo-Fairfield, CA; San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA; and Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT. Kankakee, Vallejo and Hartford only improved slightly, but just enough relative to other markets to get off the bottom 20. Both Salinas and San Diego jumped up the new report list as a result of improving housing market equilibrium conditions and improved home price appreciation forecasts. That leaves Los Angeles as the only California market represented in the bottom 20. Entering the bottom 20 were five new markets: Honolulu, HI; Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL; Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL; and Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME. All five of these markets have been near the bottom previously, so conditions haven’t changed that much. Perhaps it is best said that these markets are not improving whereas markets like San Diego appear to be. This doesn’t bode well for Florida. The amount of red in Florida rivals the amount of green (on our map) we show for Texas. National subscribers can access two different versions of our latest Housing Prospects reports, one focused on the 363 metropolitan statistical areas, and one covering all 939 market areas, which includes the metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. 
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