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New Home Sales Are Not Getting Worse Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.27.2008 Preliminary data on July new home sales were released by the Commerce Department yesterday. The stats were a bit more positive than last month, but looking at the statistical significance of these survey based metrics, it’s essentially the same story—new home sales are treading water. In July, sales of new single family homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000, which is 2.4% above the revised June rate of 503,000 but 35.3% below the July 2007 rate of 796,000. The 2.4% increase is not statistically significant. That means sales could have been up or down—it’s too close to call. No comments for this item Read more...   Even the Case-Shiller Indices Show Improvement Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.26.2008 The June Case-Shiller reading of existing home prices was released by Standard & Poor’s today. The year-over-year readings are still very negative with the National, 10-City and 20-City composites recording year-over-year quarterly declines of 15.4%, 17% and 15.9% respectively. But the June data showed signs of moderation in the rate of decline. And if you dig into them, there’s even more reason to see light at the end of the tunnel. No comments for this item Read more...   Existing Home Sales Jump in July Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.25.2008 The National Association of Realtors reported preliminary July sales today. Almost reversing the 3.4% decline in June, existing home sales increased 3.1% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5 million in July. What is the national media focusing on? Intentionally misleading readings of inventory levels. No comments for this item Read more...   Continued Depressed Production Will Enable Future Recovery Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.19.2008 The Commerce Department released the initial readings on new home construction in July today. The numbers reflect depressed demand and controlled production that will continue to enable slow progress against inventories and an eventual stable recovery. Total permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 937,000 units, which was 17.7 % below the revised June rate of 1,138,000 and 32.4 % below the revised July 2007 estimate of 1,386,000. Both readings are statistically significant that total permits declined in July. No comments for this item Read more...   Builder Sentiment Slightly Improves Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.18.2008 The National Association of Home Builders released the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for August today, and the new figures reflected some improvement, albeit relatively minor. The overall confidence measure remained at 16, a record low over its 23 year history, but two of its three components showed increases over their July readings. August posted a one-point rise in the index gauging current sales conditions while the index that tracks sales expectations increased two points. The third and final component of the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged. No comments for this item Read more...   The Price of Oil and Home Sales Are Not Directly Related Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.14.2008 Twice in the past week I have been questioned by clients about the price of oil’s impact on housing and the current housing downturn. It’s easy to see why. Until its recent retreat, the price of crude oil had more than doubled in the last year. Since new construction, home prices and home sales have tanked in the last year, the conclusion is that the price of oil is part of the problem. And worse, when I pressed one client’s source of concern I learned of a local housing market expert who recently told a group of builders and developers that the price of oil had to retreat to less than $100 per barrel for things to get better. No comments for this item Read more...   Positive Pending Home Sales Report Missing from Headlines Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.08.2008 I had a busy day yesterday so I didn’t have a chance to see the pending home sales report from the National Association of Realtors when it was released. The Wall Street Journal had the following on the front page of yesterday’s paper: “Headline: Pending Home Sales Seen Lower in June. The National Association of Realtors is expected to say that pending home sales fell in June but less steeply than in May.” As it turned out, the report was a positive surprise. I thought positive surprises were supposed to merit thoughtful news coverage. No comments for this item Read more...   Florida Dominates Worst Markets for Housing Prospects Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.05.2008 Yesterday, we revealed the updated top 20 markets for the best housing prospects. Today I’m covering the bottom 20—or the markets with the worst prospects. Texas isn’t represented on this list; instead, it’s Flo-rida. Shawty got low, low, low, low… Remember, our index calculations are meant to give a picture of what we expect markets to be like in 3-5 years. While the market equilibrium is current, the other variables are based on the most recent forecasts out for five years. The indices are relative so they score the markets against one another. No comments for this item Read more...   The Prospects Are Bright Deep in the Heart of Texas Written by Jonathan Smoke    08.04.2008 We’ve updated our Prospects Index calculations based on the latest historical data and forecasts for key housing metrics, including market equilibrium, economic outlook, home price risk, and long-term home price appreciation. As to the best markets for future prospects, I wouldn’t bet against Texas. Before we get into the list, it’s important to note our emphasis on prospects. Our index calculations are meant to give a picture of what we expect these markets to be like in 3-5 years. While the market equilibrium is current, the other variables are based on the most recent forecasts out for five years. The indices are relative so they score the markets against one another. No comments for this item Read more...   S&P Case-Shiller Indices Show Record Annual Declines Written by Jonathan Smoke    07.29.2008 We can’t ignore the biggest news of the day on housing. Standard & Poor’s released the May 2008 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The press release summarized the new readings by reporting that for the second straight month, all 20 MSAs posted annual declines, nine of which are posting record lows and 10 of which are in double-digits. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite are reporting record low annual declines. Looking at the 10 and 20-city composites, while hitting new record lows, the rate of the monthly declines decreased. Of the 20 cities covered, all were down relative to one year ago. But seven cities reported gains over April: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Minneapolis and Portland. Two cities, Charlotte and Dallas, have a three-month upward streak. Boston, Denver and Portland have recorded two straight months of increases. No comments for this item Read more...

More... New Home Sales Supply Is Slowly Shrinking Non-Adjusted Existing Homes Sales Up in June Single Family Production Continues to Move Sideways Irrational Ennui or a Vast Conspiracy? Sentiment Seems to Be Declining Even More Income and Home Affordability Urbanization and Affordability Recap of Week’s News—A Mixed Bag But With Hope of a Bottom for Sales Unaffordable by Choice The Cost of Unaffordable Housing May Permits and Starts Move Sideways The Myth of Eroding Affordability Employment Grows (In Spite of Housing Bust) April Pending Home Sales Index Bodes Well One Big Builder’s View of the Market Gives Me Confidence New Data Send Confusing Signals About Market Conditions April Existing Home Sales Data Weren’t As Bad As the Headlines Indicate Atlanta Is Slowly Improving According to Local Experts Permits and Starts Data Promising but Beware of Tempting Headlines Pulse of Resale Activity Bodes Well for Atlanta’s Recovery

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