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| Local Home Price Forecast for New Jersey |
| Written by Jonathan Smoke | |
| 09.04.2007 | |
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Discuss this article on the forums. (0 posts) In response to Friday’s post on the forecast for possible home price declines, a HousingIntelligence community member asked us to reveal more information about the forecast for New Jersey.  As it turns out, looking at markets in New Jersey perfectly illustrates the theme that prices are really determined in local markets, where the impact of demand and supply really happens.There are seven metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that reside within or include part of New Jersey. According to our analysis and simulation of possible scenarios across those markets, more than half of New Jersey’s MSAs are likely to experience home price declines between now and the end of 2008. Ocean City and Trenton-Ewing each have about a 90% chance of experiencing home price declines.
The mega markets of New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington have about a 50% chance of seeing falling home prices. Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton and Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton each have less than a 40% chance of seeing home price declines. Homeowners in Atlantic City can leave their umbrellas in their appreciating homes as the chance of falling home prices there is negligible. While this clearly shows that location has a tremendous impact on housing, please note that within most markets there is a similar distribution of activity and associated metrics. There are likely to be counties in each of New Jersey’s MSAs that have greater or less home price risk than the overall market average. And within each county there are likely to be zip codes or individual neighborhoods that buck the overall trend. 
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