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| Pulse of Resale Activity Bodes Well for Atlanta’s Recovery |
| Written by Jonathan Smoke | |
| 05.15.2008 | |
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Discuss this article on the forums. (0 posts) I have been touting the great visibility into what’s happening now, which we provide through integration of Altos Research’s real-time market charts into our Housing Intelligence coverage. In preparation for Greater Atlanta Home Building Association’s presentation on the state of the market next week, I decided to leverage the charts to see what’s going on with listings activity in Atlanta. What I found is very informative and bodes well for Atlanta’s recovery. As seen in the chart above, the “ask” price of homes for sale in Atlanta reached a 7-day average price bottom in January. The 90-day price average bottomed in March. In aggregate, the ask prices, which are leading indicators of actual transaction prices, are on a march up. Looking at listings by price quartiles (top 25%, upper middle 25%, lower middle 25%, and bottom 25%), it is clear that the top three quartiles are at the last year’s levels. In the case of the upper half, prices are now actually higher. But the view I like best is the one below of what Altos calls the “Market Action Index” by each of these quartiles. The MAI is a proprietary metric produced by Altos that measures sales activity against inventory. A measure above 30 is considered a hot or seller’s market. Below 30 is a buyer’s market. Most of the country has been in a decidedly buyer’s market for more than a year. Atlanta is no exception. While no quartile is quite back into “Hot-lanta” territory, there is a decided upswing in activity that would indicate the market is heating up. All quartiles have improved dramatically since March, and the fourth quartile (the lowest 25% priced homes) is flirting with the mid 20s. It is also encouraging to see that the highest priced homes in Atlanta, which have an average listing price over $450k, have seen the most dramatic improvement in the last week. Finally, take a look at the average days on market for listings in Atlanta. As of today, the metrics for all quartiles have improved dramatically. The lowest priced homes are averaging under 65 days and the highest priced homes are under 90 days, which is close to year ago levels. Most of the improvements in days on market have come in the last 45 days. Could any graph explain the winter funk we went through any better than this? What I have shared here is just a fraction of what you can review with these charts. I didn’t even touch comparing condos to single family homes. You can shorten the time frames studied, focus on any single quartile, single out condos, or change the average metric. We track 11 different metrics that can be sliced 324 ways. All it takes to look at any of our 40+ markets covered is an enhanced subscription. Furthermore, most data is updated at least weekly, so you can truly stay on top of the pulse of the housing market. Check out our Sales Trends for the free view of this powerful functionality on a national composite basis. 
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