| Whither Goes the Housing Market? |
| Written by Jonathan Smoke | |
| 05.07.2008 | |
Discuss this article on the forums. (0 posts) A series of prominent forecasts have been issued lately regarding when housing will reach a bottom and begin a recovery.Last week the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) hosted its spring Construction Forecast Conference. Handouts from many of the presentations are available at the NAHB site. Mark Zandi of Moody’s forecast that housing will rebound beginning in the spring of 2009. David Seiders of NAHB’s newly released forecast points to new home sales bottoming in the second and third quarters of this year (essentially now) and slightly recovering on an annualized basis starting in the fourth quarter of this year. Seiders also notes that there are considerable risks to the forecast: “This downbeat housing forecast actually is vulnerable to considerable downside risks related to the downward spiral of house prices and mortgage credit quality. On the other hand, the outcome could be considerably brighter if Congress and the Administration come together quickly on effective measures to stimulate home buying and limit the number of mortgage foreclosures.”
Nariman Behravesh of Global Insight also sees a bottom being reached in new home sales this quarter with a slow gradual recovery beginning in the third quarter and extending out to 2011. Behravesh sees existing home sales bottoming in the third quarter. 
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