Market Research

A Tale of 939 Cities
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
03.03.2008
Despite what may happen year to year, quarter to quarter or month to month, an accepted truism in housing is that “all real estate is local.” Local supply and demand, driven by trends in jobs, incomes, household growth, permits, and home prices determine the conditions for local markets.

I’ve heard from many housing professionals—from realtors to lenders to developers to builders—that they are having a tough time getting the public to understand that markets are different. Topeka doesn’t like being described like Miami. Little Rock isn’t like Detroit. Oklahoma City isn’t quite like Los Angeles. Albemarle shouldn’t be compared to Phoenix.
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Demand for Small Homes? You Bet!
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
02.21.2008
A comment posted this week to my article on demand and supply being determined in submarkets and within price point segments deserved more than just a simple reply. The question was: Is there a demand for smaller housing projects either considered second homes or cabins or even primary residences in the 1500 square foot range?

Conventional wisdom suggests that bigger is better. After all, new homes in the U.S. have steadily risen in the average size over the last 50 years. According to the NAHB, the average home built in 1973 was 1,660 square feet, and in 2007 it was 2,512 square feet. But the rate of growth in size is slowing, and many expect the average size of new homes to not change much over the foreseeable future.
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Energy Efficiency on the Minds of Home Buyers and More Signs of Hope
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
02.15.2008
Day 2 of the Builder Show started with an early presentation by Gopal Ahluwalia, the head of research for NAHB, on the key findings in the 2008 NAHB Consumer Preferences Study. An 8 am presentation is a challenge for any convention, but there were many interested builders and suppliers wanting to find out about the study.

Ahluwalia reported on several key differences showing up in this study over studies completed previously. First, energy efficiency was high on the list of consumer preferences with 72% of respondents indicating that energy efficiency features would most influence their purchase decision. This was second only to the amount of living space.
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Keep Track of Housing Companies
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
02.13.2008
I’m off to the International Builder Show today and I will soon see how much the downturn has impacted attendance at the annual industry confab hosted by the National Association of Home Builders. Look for updates from me later in the week.

If you need to track the performance of builders and other housing-related companies, pay a visit to our new Housing Companies section of the site. We reworked our licensed data from Hoover’s into industry categories so you can see the major players. In the new format you cane at a glance review sales, sales growth, employee count and employee growth.
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To Understand Housing Demand, Know Location and Segments
Written by Jonathan Smoke   
02.06.2008

After yesterday’s post where I described the need to understand both the market and segments of demand, I thought it would be useful to write about what really constitutes a single housing market, i.e., where buyers make decisions about their homes. I would argue that the real action takes place in what we refer to as a submarket—a geographic location with relatively similar housing choices and prices. Such a submarket is usually small. It’s smaller than a zip code or a county.
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