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Written by Jonathan Dienhart
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02.10.2010 |
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Residential permit activity ended 2009 on a comparatively positive note. In the fourth quarter, total permit issuance was down just 5% from the level seen during the same period last year. Single-family permits were up 15% during the quarter, while multifamily totals were 40% lower than one year ago. Though still below last year’s level, the 5% drop in total permits is the smallest year-over year decline in total permit issuance seen in any quarter since the first quarter of 2006 when total permits rose 4% on a year-over-year basis. In comparison, at the end of 2008 total permits were down by 46% from the preceding year. | | No comments for this item |
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Written by Jonathan Dienhart
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02.10.2010 |
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In the latest release of our 4th Quarter 2009 New Home Executive Summary reports, builders saw improved conditions in several markets nationwide in terms of increases in year-over-year net sales volumes and prices, as well as continued decreases in inventory levels. The Denver new home market has been a top performer, with total net sales increasing 40% in the fourth quarter of 2009 when compared to the volume observed in fourth quarter 2008. Sales prices of new homes have remained steady in Denver, with the median new home price increasing 8% year-over-year. The San Francisco Bay Area, where indicators were on a steady downward path over the last three years, saw a welcomed boost during 4th quarter 2009, with net sales posting a 37% increase from one year earlier. | | No comments for this item |
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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01.15.2009 |
 I recently read with interest an informative column entitled “This Cycle's Recovery Will Be Distinctive” from Giants magazine by industry luminary John Burns. In the article Burns concluded that the housing recovery will vary geographically. He recommended that to find the markets that will recover first builders “need to put your consumer hat on.”
While I whole-heartedly agree with his analysis, the specific advice about how to understand consumers and determine where they will re-emerge as buyers left me sorely disappointed. | | This item includes 1 comment |
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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01.14.2009 |
 The conditions at the end of 2008 were horrible in most markets in the country. What we’ve seen in the last two years, but especially at the end of last year, was unprecedented as first home prices, then sales and now economic fundamentals deteriorated all over the country. Housing got a one-two punch followed by a credit crisis and broad economic decline.
But it’s not the same scenario in every market. Some markets have only limited and temporary issues while others have systemic longer term problems that may take several years to fully recover. Some markets didn't see declines in 2008. Some markets have local economies that are doing quite well. | | No comments for this item |
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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11.13.2008 |
 Earlier this week I shared the bottom markets in our updated Housing Prospects Index. Florida dominated the list. As we switch to the top markets for future prospects, we leave Florida and head to Big 12 territory.
Our Prospects Index calculations are based on the latest historical data and forecasts for key housing metrics, including market equilibrium, economic outlook, home price risk, and long-term home price appreciation. The index calculations are meant to give a picture of what we expect markets to be like in 3-5 years. While the market equilibrium is current, the other variables are based on the most recent forecasts out for five years. The indices are relative so they score the markets against one another. | | No comments for this item |
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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11.11.2008 |
At the end of last week, the National Association of Realtors released the September Pending Home Sales Index. The report showed that contracts for the sale of existing homes declined in September relative to August but were still higher than September last year.
Lawrence Yung, NAR’s Chief Economist said the “weakening was understandable,” presumably since the economy’s outlook dimmed considerably in September, but he still saw reason to be positive since the year over year reading was positive. | | No comments for this item |
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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08.12.2008 |
On Thursday, August 14, I will be presenting to the Cherokee Chapter of the Atlanta Home Builders Association with my friends and colleagues, Beth Marconi-Law and Don Evans of Evans and Law.
The topic is “If You Build It, Who Will Come? Applying Retail Science to New Home Sales.” We’ll show how consumer segmentation and preference information can be used to help builders and developers make better decisions about which customers to target, what product to offer, and how best to reach prospects. | | No comments for this item |
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Written by Christina Weitzman
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08.01.2008 |
 The July editions of our HousingIntelligence Market Reports are now available for subscribers to download. National subscribers have access to 939 metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas of the country from Abbeville, LA to Zanesville, OH. A local subscription provides immediate access to one designated market.
Not yet a subscriber? Take a look at what you’re missing: | | No comments for this item |
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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07.01.2008 |
 Intelligence is a bad thing to waste. From our experience, too many otherwise rational professionals make housing related decisions by gut feel due to lack of information. That’s why our tag line is “Don’t just guess.”
In order to increase our exposure and help out local chambers of commerce and home building associations, we’ve elected to make a basic report on key housing metrics available for free. You can find them in our aptly titled “Free Reports” under Intelligence on our main site navigation. | | No comments for this item |
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Written by Jonathan Smoke
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06.12.2008 |
 Yesterday was the launch of the Southern Building Show in Atlanta. Since the show’s first full day is today, I couldn’t get a gauge for the show attendance yesterday. The Exhibit Floor wasn’t very crowded for the evening “sneak preview,” and none of the afternoon educational sessions I attended were standing room only.
Show organizers claim they expect 5,000 people to attend. We welcome any of those 5,000 to visit us in Booth 1331, across from the big duck. | | No comments for this item |
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