| Texas Remains at the Top for Future Prospects |
| Written by Jonathan Smoke | |
| 11.13.2008 | |
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Discuss this article on the forums. (0 posts) Earlier this week I shared the bottom markets in our updated Housing Prospects Index. Florida dominated the list. As we switch to the top markets for future prospects, we leave Florida and head to Big 12 territory.  Our Prospects Index calculations are based on the latest historical data and forecasts for key housing metrics, including market equilibrium, economic outlook, home price risk, and long-term home price appreciation. The index calculations are meant to give a picture of what we expect markets to be like in 3-5 years. While the market equilibrium is current, the other variables are based on the most recent forecasts out for five years. The indices are relative so they score the markets against one another. Using the 363 largest markets in the country (all 363 metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the Census and the White House/Office of Management and Budget), the best markets for housing continue to be in Texas and other markets with energy or agricultural strength: Looking back against our August report, 6 markets dropped off the top 20 list: Abilene, TX; Fort Collins-Loveland, CO; Columbus, IN; Pueblo, CO; Billings, MT; and Owensboro, KY. These markets didn’t fall much in the rankings, as they are all still in the top 50 with bright prospects. The 6 new comers were Lawton, OK; El Paso, TX; Hot Springs, AR; Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA; Fort Smith, AR-OK; and Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL. The biggest advancer was Lawton, OK, as it jumped from 51 to number 5 on a big improvement in economic forecasts. I am a little skeptical of the continued strength of this area since commodity prices have fallen dramatically over the last 90 days, but these areas remain the best because of future expectations and limited current housing market problems. National subscribers to HousingIntelligence can access two different versions of our latest Housing Prospects reports, one focused on the 363 metropolitan statistical areas, and one covering all 939 market areas, which includes the metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. 
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