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| According to NAR, Prospects for 2007 Continue to Decline |
| Written by Jonathan Smoke | |
| 06.07.2007 | |
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Discuss this article on the forums. (0 posts) This week, the National Association of Realtors downwardly revised their already negative forecasts for home sales and home prices for 2007. According to “NAR lowers expectations for home sales, prices,” in our Real Estate news, “Existing-home sales are expected to fall 4.6 percent this year to 6.18 million, compared with 6.48 million in 2006, with new single-family home sales dropping 18.2 percent and housing starts dropping 20.4 percent. Housing starts for single-family units are expected to decline 23 percent this year compared to 2006.
… “Median existing-home prices are expected to drop 1.3 percent this year to $219,100, while new-home prices are expected to fall 2.3 percent to $240,800, according to the association's latest forecast. The forecast calls for home prices to recover in 2008, with the existing-home price rising 1.7 percent and the new-home price rising 2.6 percent compared to 2007.” In the Inman Real Estate Blog yesterday, Glenn Roberts posted a nice recap of the continuing downward revisions from NAR: “NAR's 2007 forecast released in January:
• National median existing-home price will rise 1.5 percent (compared to '06) • National median new-home price will rise 3 percent • Existing-home sales will drop 0.9 percent • New-home sales will drop 8.9 percent • Housing starts will drop 16.2 percent NAR's 2007 forecast (released in May): • National median existing-home price will drop 1 percent • National median new-home price will be flat • Existing-home sales will drop 2.9 percent • New-home sales will drop 17.8 percent • Housing starts will drop 19 percent NAR's 2007 forecast (released in June): • National median existing-home price will drop 1.3 percent • National median new-home price will drop 2.3 percent • Existing-home sales will drop 4.6 percent • New-home sales will drop 18.2 percent • Housing starts will drop 20.4 percent”  But remember as we pointed out last week, the national trends, while clearly negative, are averaging very different changes going on in separate markets. Likewise, within markets, there are neighborhoods doing well in sales and appreciating in price, while there are others that clearly aren’t. And this is the case in every market in the country.If you don’t believe that, stay tuned to HousingIntelligence. We are adding a forecasting report pack to our next set of market reports available in our Enhanced Subscription. Then later this summer we will release an online tool that will show neighborhood level trends. 
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