Home Real Estate

According to NAR, Prospects for 2007 Continue to Decline Written by Jonathan Smoke    06.07.2007 This week, the National Association of Realtors downwardly revised their already negative forecasts for home sales and home prices for 2007. According to “NAR lowers expectations for home sales, prices,” in our Real Estate news, “Existing-home sales are expected to fall 4.6 percent this year to 6.18 million, compared with 6.48 million in 2006, with new single-family home sales dropping 18.2 percent and housing starts dropping 20.4 percent. Housing starts for single-family units are expected to decline 23 percent this year compared to 2006.” No comments for this item Read more...   In Search of Leading Indicators Written by Jonathan Smoke    06.05.2007 In our Real Estate News, we have a new depressing article about the national housing scene. In “No bottom yet for housing downturn,” several housing economists are interviewed and the conclusion is that we won’t reach the trough of this downturn until later this year and when we do it will be a slow recovery. When we talk of a downturn in housing, generally people mean a decline year-over-year or month-over-month in home sales and/or home prices. But since both of these measures are lagging indicators (they tell you how good or bad the prior month was), using them to make decisions about opportunities can be dangerous. It would be like judging your business prospects on how much profit you made last year. No comments for this item Read more...   Were New Home Buyers in a Funk in April? Written by Jonathan Smoke    06.01.2007 For the public builders, the biggest news of the day relates to Hovnanian’s Second Quarter Earnings. According to TheStreet.com: “‘We are frustrated to report that the housing market has continued to slip further in many locations in terms of both sales pace and sales prices,’ CEO Ara K. Hovnanian said in a statement. ‘The housing market weakened in the latter part of the second quarter and the slower conditions have continued into May. Lower prices offered to buyers to close homes during the quarter also led to a further reduction in margins and a net loss for the quarter.’” No comments for this item Read more...   Which Way Are U.S. Home Sales Headed? Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.29.2007 Nationally, new home sales were up in April. Existing home sales were down in April. Were new home sales an aberration? Or a result of significant incentives from builders to prime the slow-so-far spring selling season? Here’s some direct honesty: We don’t know where this national market is heading in the short-term. No comments for this item Read more...   A Lack of Intelligence Put Us in This Mess Written by Jonathan Smoke    05.23.2007 I have an interesting argument that I’d like to share with our growing community of fellow housing geeks: the lack of intelligence and disciplined decision making contributed to the bubble conditions that took markets too high too quickly and have now left us in a mess. Here’s the rationale. Two things mixed together to create the perfect storm for the massive run up in housing in many markets from 2002-2005: investor speculation and innovation/lax credit standards in financing. No comments for this item Read more...